Social Distancing: Drop Seen for First Time Since Outbreak

The COVID-19 outbreak is far from over—but some Americans are jumping the gun when it comes to easing up on social distancing, according to new data from the University of Maryland (UMD).

Researchers at the Maryland Transportation Institute (MTI), part of UMD’s A. James Clark School of Engineering, are reporting a decline in the Social Distancing Index (SDI), starting on April 14, 2020. The SDI is a metric that records compliance with restrictions and guidelines meant to contain the outbreak.

It is the first such decline to be recorded nationwide since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in the U.S., and comes after successive weeks of the SDI either increasing or holding steady.

The trend is widespread: as of April 24, 2020, 48 states have seen a reduction in their SDI, with the largest drops seen in Louisiana (-15), Ohio (-13), Indiana (-12), Vermont (-12), Alabama (-11), Michigan (-11), Mississippi (-11), North Carolina (-11), and Texas (-11).

The SDI steadily increased in the United States from March 13 through April 13, rising from 14 to 51. On April 14, however, it began to decline. Week-on-week comparisons show a 3-point drop between April 11-17 and the previous week. And the trend has continued, with a further 4-point drop between April 18-24. Nationwide, the index now stands at 44.

The number of work trips has not changed, and the declining SDI is caused mostly by fewer people staying home, more non-work trips, more out-of-state and out-of-county trips, and longer travel distances, according to MTI.

The index is calculated daily by MTI, using anonymized and aggregated location-based service data from mobile phones and other sources. All results at the state and county levels are publicly available on an interactive COVID-19 impact analysis platform created by MTI in partnership with the Center for Advanced Transportation Technology (CATT) Laboratory.

The numbers reinforce concerns that warmer weather and public debate over reopening may be spurring a premature loosening of social distancing behavior, even as COVID-19 cases continue to mount.

“The real question is what we should do about this observed shift in social distancing momentum,” said Lei Zhang, Herbert Rabin Distinguished Professor and director of MTI, who leads the study. “To those who decided to loosen up and started going out for non-essential purposes, we need to more effectively communicate the importance of social distancing through customized messaging targeting different population groups.”

“To those who are hurt the most by the economic impact and eager to go back to work, governments may need to consider additional assistance especially if we ask them to stay at home for another month or longer.”

State3/13/203/20/203/27/204/3/204/10/204/17/204/24/20SDI Change: 4/10~4/24
StateLA 3/13/2012 3/20/2035 3/27/2045 4/3/2045 4/10/2050 4/17/2041 4/24/2035 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-15
StateOH 3/13/2014 3/20/2037 3/27/2052 4/3/2043 4/10/2050 4/17/2050 4/24/2037 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-13
StateIN 3/13/2013 3/20/2029 3/27/2048 4/3/2039 4/10/2044 4/17/2047 4/24/2032 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-12
StateVT 3/13/2014 3/20/2035 3/27/2048 4/3/2050 4/10/2051 4/17/2046 4/24/2039 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-12
StateAL 3/13/2011 3/20/2029 3/27/2030 4/3/2031 4/10/2038 4/17/2032 4/24/2027 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-11
StateMI 3/13/2014 3/20/2038 3/27/2059 4/3/2055 4/10/2062 4/17/2061 4/24/2051 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-11
StateMS 3/13/2011 3/20/2028 3/27/2031 4/3/2033 4/10/2038 4/17/2032 4/24/2027 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-11
StateNC 3/13/2012 3/20/2027 3/27/2036 4/3/2039 4/10/2044 4/17/2035 4/24/2033 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-11
StateTX 3/13/2013 3/20/2035 3/27/2045 4/3/2049 4/10/2048 4/17/2044 4/24/2037 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-11
StateAK 3/13/2016 3/20/2036 3/27/2051 4/3/2054 4/10/2048 4/17/2043 4/24/2038 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-10
StateND 3/13/2013 3/20/2033 3/27/2035 4/3/2048 4/10/2038 4/17/2034 4/24/2028 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-10
StateSC 3/13/2011 3/20/2025 3/27/2033 4/3/2034 4/10/2041 4/17/2033 4/24/2031 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-10
StateTN 3/13/2012 3/20/2030 3/27/2034 4/3/2037 4/10/2040 4/17/2032 4/24/2030 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-10
StateGA 3/13/2013 3/20/2031 3/27/2039 4/3/2042 4/10/2045 4/17/2039 4/24/2036 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-9
StateKY 3/13/2013 3/20/2031 3/27/2039 4/3/2036 4/10/2042 4/17/2040 4/24/2033 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-9
StateMN 3/13/2013 3/20/2039 3/27/2041 4/3/2056 4/10/2046 4/17/2043 4/24/2037 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-9
StateNM 3/13/2013 3/20/2027 3/27/2044 4/3/2039 4/10/2044 4/17/2038 4/24/2035 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-9
StateUT 3/13/2014 3/20/2035 3/27/2040 4/3/2041 4/10/2040 4/17/2039 4/24/2031 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-9
StateWI 3/13/2012 3/20/2036 3/27/2046 4/3/2044 4/10/2043 4/17/2040 4/24/2034 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-9
StateWV 3/13/2014 3/20/2031 3/27/2045 4/3/2040 4/10/2046 4/17/2039 4/24/2037 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-9
StateCA 3/13/2016 3/20/2047 3/27/2053 4/3/2051 4/10/2057 4/17/2052 4/24/2049 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-8
StateNV 3/13/2015 3/20/2044 3/27/2050 4/3/2050 4/10/2053 4/17/2050 4/24/2045 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-8
StateMT 3/13/2015 3/20/2026 3/27/2028 4/3/2041 4/10/2031 4/17/2029 4/24/2024 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-7
StateOK 3/13/2013 3/20/2027 3/27/2036 4/3/2044 4/10/2036 4/17/2035 4/24/2029 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-7
StateAZ 3/13/2015 3/20/2030 3/27/2042 4/3/2045 4/10/2045 4/17/2043 4/24/2039 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-6
StateHI 3/13/2014 3/20/2036 3/27/2061 4/3/2062 4/10/2066 4/17/2063 4/24/2060 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-6
StateIL 3/13/2014 3/20/2037 3/27/2053 4/3/2048 4/10/2051 4/17/2054 4/24/2045 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-6
StateME 3/13/2015 3/20/2035 3/27/2039 4/3/2050 4/10/2040 4/17/2036 4/24/2034 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-6
StateNH 3/13/2013 3/20/2033 3/27/2039 4/3/2051 4/10/2048 4/17/2043 4/24/2042 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-6
StatePA 3/13/2015 3/20/2042 3/27/2051 4/3/2053 4/10/2057 4/17/2052 4/24/2051 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-6
StateCO 3/13/2015 3/20/2045 3/27/2054 4/3/2053 4/10/2048 4/17/2050 4/24/2043 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-5
StateDE 3/13/2015 3/20/2033 3/27/2046 4/3/2049 4/10/2054 4/17/2048 4/24/2049 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-5
StateIA 3/13/2012 3/20/2033 3/27/2040 4/3/2044 4/10/2036 4/17/2039 4/24/2031 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-5
StateID 3/13/2014 3/20/2023 3/27/2041 4/3/2037 4/10/2032 4/17/2031 4/24/2027 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-5
StateMO 3/13/2013 3/20/2030 3/27/2043 4/3/2043 4/10/2041 4/17/2043 4/24/2036 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-5
StateNY 3/13/2020 3/20/2051 3/27/2064 4/3/2068 4/10/2070 4/17/2065 4/24/2065 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-5
StateVA 3/13/2014 3/20/2036 3/27/2045 4/3/2048 4/10/2051 4/17/2045 4/24/2046 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-5
StateWA 3/13/2020 3/20/2036 3/27/2057 4/3/2052 4/10/2050 4/17/2048 4/24/2045 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-5
StateAR 3/13/2012 3/20/2026 3/27/2031 4/3/2034 4/10/2031 4/17/2030 4/24/2027 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-4
StateDC 3/13/2023 3/20/2059 3/27/2067 4/3/2070 4/10/2073 4/17/2069 4/24/2069 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-4
StateNE 3/13/2014 3/20/2038 3/27/2038 4/3/2046 4/10/2038 4/17/2042 4/24/2034 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-4
StateSD 3/13/2013 3/20/2029 3/27/2033 4/3/2044 4/10/2029 4/17/2031 4/24/2025 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-4
StateCT 3/13/2016 3/20/2042 3/27/2049 4/3/2058 4/10/2059 4/17/2052 4/24/2056 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-3
StateKS 3/13/2014 3/20/2033 3/27/2043 4/3/2052 4/10/2044 4/17/2044 4/24/2041 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-3
StateMD 3/13/2014 3/20/2040 3/27/2052 4/3/2057 4/10/2059 4/17/2054 4/24/2056 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-3
StateNJ 3/13/2017 3/20/2049 3/27/2062 4/3/2065 4/10/2068 4/17/2062 4/24/2065 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-3
StateFL 3/13/2013 3/20/2034 3/27/2049 4/3/2053 4/10/2054 4/17/2050 4/24/2052 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-2
StateOR 3/13/2017 3/20/2031 3/27/2050 4/3/2046 4/10/2044 4/17/2040 4/24/2042 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-2
StateMA 3/13/2018 3/20/2045 3/27/2057 4/3/2064 4/10/2060 4/17/2056 4/24/2060 SDI Change: 4/10~4/240
StateWY 3/13/2015 3/20/2028 3/27/2032 4/3/2030 4/10/2023 4/17/2028 4/24/2023 SDI Change: 4/10~4/240
StateRI 3/13/2016 3/20/2039 3/27/2045 4/3/2056 4/10/2051 4/17/2048 4/24/2054 SDI Change: 4/10~4/243
State  3/13/20  3/20/20  3/27/20  4/3/20  4/10/20  4/17/20  4/24/20  SDI Change: 4/10~4/24 
StateNation 3/13/2014 3/20/2038 3/27/2048 4/3/2050 4/10/2051 4/17/2048 4/24/2044 SDI Change: 4/10~4/24-7

 

 

 

Published April 28, 2020